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Why You Shouldn’t Listen to Forecasters

You don’t go to fortune tellers, do you?  Below is a list of 2013 S&P 500 targets by Wall Street firm.  Admittedly, these are year-end numbers and we may be do for a pullback, but we have quickly outpaced all of their targets as the S&P 500 is now at 1667.  More often than not, forecasts aren’t worth the paper on which they’re written.

House S&P 500 Target       EPS
Wells Fargo 1,390 $103.00
UBS 1,425 $108.00
Morgan Stanley 1,434 $98.71
Deutsche Bank 1,500 $108.00
Barclays 1,525 $105.00
Credit Suisse 1,550 $104.90
HSBC 1,560
Jefferies 1,565 $112.90
Goldman Sachs 1,575 $107.00
BMO Capital 1,575 $106.25
JP Morgan 1,580 $110.00
Oppenheimer 1,585 $108.00
BofA Merrill Lynch 1,600 $110.00
Citi 1,615 $108.00
AVERAGE 1,534 $106.90


Instead of trying to time the markets, it is more important to have a well-diversified portfolio with an asset allocation that meets your needs and risk tolerance.

These markets have crushed the shorts as well as anyone that has been on the sidelines worried about fiscal cliffs, sequestration or problems in Europe.

Legging into the market via dollar-cost-averaging is a prudent strategy, but trying to pick tops or bottoms to enter or exit the market is a fool’s errand.